The Frequency Illusion

This week I had a good opportunity to discuss an interesting cognitive bias with one of my 4th year medical student while we were on renal rounds. The issue came up when I was examining the belly of one of my young patients, who screamed out, “your hands are cold”. One of our nurses was quick to respond, “Cold hands, warm heart”. My student looked at me then remarked that she had only recently ever heard that expression, and since then has been hearing it over and over again. This, of course, lead to a natural discussion of the cognitive bias called the Frequency Illusion, which also is known as “The Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon”. I admit we had to look up the name, as neither of us could remember what it was called. As physicians and scientists, critical thinking and rational thought are vital, and one way I teach this to my students is by discussing cognitive bias and logical fallacies. These emphasize where limitations of the human mind lie, and how to avoid common pitfalls in thinking that we are all prone towards.

The frequency illusion is one we have probably all experienced from time to time. The example above, is a not unusual. My student may have heard that phrase before, but never really registered it, or perhaps really never did hear it before recently. In any case, the true frequency of the phrase is unlikely to have suddenly increased, but only my students perception of the phrase has lead her to believe that only now is she hearing, “cold hands, warm heart” all over the place. Cognitive scientists propose that when the human mind has been given new information, it creates a bias towards that information so that we are more likely to become aware of seeing or hearing that same information again the next time it is presented. This is known as a “Recency Effect”. In reality the information has always been present at the same frequency but until recently it was part of the background noise and not in the forefront of thought.

Another example of the Frequency Illusion is one that I noticed in myself this week.  This occurred after a friend of mine posted on Facebook that he and his wife were visiting the Florida Keys for vacation. Since then I have noticed several commercials on TV advertising the Florida Keys for tourism. I had never noticed those commercials before. Now, it is possible that those commercials have only just begun to be broadcast, my friend was influenced by the commercial and decided to go to the Florida Keys, and I only started noticing the commercials because they were never on TV before this week. A more likely explanation is that I have fallen victim to the Frequency Illusion.

And yes, my hands really are cold all the time, and my heart is around 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit – so pretty warm. I guess my nurse was right after all!

Reference articles:
1. “The Baader-Meinhof pheonomonen”, How stuff works.

2. Structure of a logical argument. The Skeptics Guide to the Universe page.

3. “The Clumping Effect” Darwin’s Kidneys blogpost.

4. List of Logical Fallacies.  Wikipedia.

 

The Clumping Effect

by Rich Feldenberg

Cognitive biases permeate our thinking process, leading us to false conclusion and beliefs. Aristotle called humans, “The Rational Animal”, but it has been pointed out before that we are much more rationalizing than rational. We have a strong tendency to hold onto our notions, defending them with faulty logic and weak arguments, because we wish them to be true. Motivational reasoning and emotional argument is common to see in even very intelligent and educated individuals. Daniel Kahneman helped to define the idea of cognitive bias, and popularized it in his book, “Thinking Fast and Slow”. Over the decades the ways in which evolution has mesigned the human mind to fail the litmus test of reality testing has been more fully explored, and the list of cognitive biases, logical fallacies, and faulty brain circuits continues to grow ever longer.
I would like to introduce what I believe is a new, and as yet, unidentified type of cognitive bias the I’m labeling as “The Clumping Effect”. I have noticed this effect in myself over the last few years, and although I have not done a statistical analysis of the effect, feel it can be nothing more than a cognitive bias. The effect occurs when I am on the trail, either on my bike or running. The nature of the effect is this: If there is a stretch of trail with few runners, walkers, and cyclists, I notice that if there are two other people on the trail that are separated from each other at time 1 (when I notice them), then the three of us all converge at the same spot (time 2). In other words, if I’m on my bike I don’t just pass the first person and then later the second person, we all happen to be along the same point of the path together at time 2.
This effect can occur if all three subjects are moving in the same direction, or if two or moving in the same direction and one in the opposite direction, but all subjects must be moving at different velocities. In this definition I’m using the term velocity in its true physical sense (speed and direction), because you could for instance, have two bikes moving at the same speed, but opposite direction. Place a runner in-between the bikes and the Clumping Effect demands that the three will pass each other at the same point.
I notice this because it is somewhat annoying to be a cyclist, moving at a good clip on an empty trail, then have to be cautious about avoiding a collision when the lone spot of the trail is suddenly at full capacity. And, that I believe is the underlying reason for the Clumping Effect. It is those instances that stand out in my mind, whereas the many times that I pass one athlete then the other doesn’t really register as an event at all. We remember the hits and forget the misses, as any good skeptic knows.
I would be interested to know if anyone else has ever experienced a similar effect. I may also decide to do an experiment to measure the incidence of “hits” in comparison to “misses” on my typical trail. I’m curious to know do ‘hits to misses’ happen at a rate of 1:100 for example. How often does it have to happen that it stands out in my mind as something that “always happens”. Also, what proportion of users of the trail also notice the effect? I could send out a survey to local running and cycling groups?

References and other sources of good info:
1. Cognitive Biases Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias
2. Daniel Kahneman Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman
3. “Thinking Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman. I really recommend this book.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/thinking-fast-and-slow/id443149884?mt=11
4. “The Skeptics Guide to the Universe (SGU)” podcast. Great free source of information on how to think logically.
http://www.theskepticsguide.org
5. “Neurological” Blog by Dr. Steven Novella. Also filled with great information on skeptical and logical thinking.
http://theness.com/neurologicablog/
6. “The Rationally Speaking Podcast”, host Julia Galef.
http://rationallyspeakingpodcast.org
7. SGUs guide to argument and logical fallacies: http://www.theskepticsguide.org/resources/logical-fallacies